Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD regains footing on pre-US election/ Fed market caution

• Gold price bounces toward $2,750 early Monday, as a crucial week kicks off.

• The US Dollar slumps with US Treasury bond yields on odds of a Harris win in the US election.

• Recapturing $2,750 is critical for Gold price amid favorable technical indicators.

Gold price is attempting a tepid bounce toward $2,750 early Monday, as sellers take a breather amid a general market cautiousness ahead of the US election and the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements due later this week.

Gold price gears up for US election, Fed verdict

Gold price stalls its correction from all-time highs of $2,790 set on Friday, as the US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure, witnessing a bearish opening gap, following the latest opinion poll on the US election released on Saturday.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released on Saturday showed that US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris surpassed Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, marking a notable turnaround.

Meanwhile, Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House, as Americans head to polls on Tuesday.

Additionally, the US Treasury bond yields are also wilting on cautious market sentiment and expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed on Thursday, underpinning non-yielding Gold price.

On Friday, Gold price extended its two day retreat, as a disappointing headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure was offset by hot wage inflation data. The US labor market report failed to deter USD buyers, as it had limited impact on the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut expectations.

Data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Friday that NFP increased by 12,000 last month, following a downward revision to the prior two months. The Unemployment Rate held at 4.1% in October.

Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 4% from 3.9%. Markets shrugged off the weak NFP print, as it was largely expected to be distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing.

All eyes now remain on the US presidential election due on Tuesday and the Fed outcome on Thursday, representing a pivotal week that will determine the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price in the months ahead.

Markets believe Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the Greenback while a policy continuity is seen on a Harrish win.

การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิคราคาทองคำ: กราฟรายวัน

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price has found some support near the $2,730 demand area.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has seen a modest uptick to near 60, reviving the buying interest around the bright metal.

ผู้ซื้อทองคำจำเป็นต้องกลับมายืนเหนือแนวต้าน $2,746 ในระดับปิดรายวันเพื่อฟื้นแนวโน้มขาขึ้น ระดับดังกล่าวเป็นแนวรับ Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) 23.6% ของการปรับตัวขึ้นล่าสุดจากจุดต่ำสุดเมื่อวันที่ 10 ตุลาคมที่ $2,604 ไปยังจุดสูงสุดใหม่ตลอดกาลที่ $2,790.

เป้าหมายขาขึ้นถัดไปอยู่ที่ระดับสูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ $2,790.

On the downside, a sustained move below $2,730 will expose the 38.2% Fibo support at $2,718.

การยอมรับต่ำกว่านั้นในระดับรายวันตามการปิดแท่งเทียนรายวันอาจท้าทายโซนการบรรจบกันที่ $2,700 ซึ่งระดับ Fibo 50% ของการขึ้นเดียวกันและค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่แบบง่าย (SMA) 21 วันมาบรรจบกัน.

การลดลงเพิ่มเติมจะเรียกร้องให้ทดสอบแนวรับ Fibo ที่ 61.8% ที่ $2,673.