XAU/USDは、湾岸地域での緊張再燃と原油価格の上昇を受け、$4,425付近にある200日移動平均線を視野に入れている。

• Gold resumes downside below $4,500 early Wednesday after facing rejection once again above that level.
• The US Dollar holds recent gains amid renewed Mideast hostilities, stronger Oil prices, hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold is making lower highs on the daily chart, targeting the key 200-day SMA support as RSI stays bearish.

Gold is back in the red early Wednesday, holding below $4,500 after the previous pullback, as sellers retain control amid sustained US Dollar (USD) demand and renewed geopolitical concerns.

Following a volatile trading day witnessed on Tuesday, Gold is facing fresh headwinds from the ongoing surge in Oil prices as fresh hostilities erupt in the Gulf, fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal breakthrough and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The flaring up of the Mideast tensions keeps the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) intact, while higher Oil prices continue igniting inflation fears, which bolster the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.

US Central Command said late Tuesday that Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, which were thwarted or failed, prompting US forces to hit back at Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked the US Fifth Fleet headquarters.

Meanwhile, addressing the US lawmakers on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will not remove sanctions on Iran in exchange for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that sanctions relief would only come after significant concessions on the nuclear programme and the enriched uranium.

His comments came after President Donald Trump disputed reports that talks with Iran had paused, saying “conversations between us have been going on continuously”, while Tehran was reportedly still studying the latest proposal and had not communicated with the US in several days.

These factors continue to exert bearish pressures on the non-yielding Gold, having checked any upside attempts above the $4,500 level so far this week.

The next of note for Gold traders remains the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data due later in the day for a fresh outlook on the economy, which could help gauge the Fed’s monetary policy path going into the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Mideast developments will continue to drive risk sentiment and direction in the USD and Gold as the technical setup leans in favor of sellers.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,484.03. The metal holds a broadly bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,575.88 and the 50-day SMA around $4,629.99, keeping prices capped beneath a cluster of short-term trend resistance. The 200-day SMA at roughly $4,422.28 now offers underlying support after being reclaimed, suggesting the broader uptrend is not yet fully compromised, though momentum remains subdued with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 42, consistent with a weak recovery rather than an impulsive bounce.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA around $4,576, followed by the 50-day SMA close to $4,630, with the 100-day SMA higher up near $4,800 reinforcing a more substantial supply zone if the rebound extends. On the downside, immediate focus falls on the $4,484 area as a near-term pivot, with the 200-day SMA near $4,422 acting as the next key support, ahead of the prior downtrend-line break region around $4,368, where buyers would need to step in to prevent a deeper corrective slide.