XAU/USD extends pullback from $4,200 as eyes turn to Fed Minutes

• Gold is down for the second straight day early Monday, looking to challenge $4,100.
• The US Dollar finds a floor amid renewed risk aversion on Hormuz tensions and an Asian stock sell-off.
• Gold sellers test the 21-day SMA near $4,150 as the daily RSI remains bearish.

Gold is retreating from two-week highs just above $4,200 for the second straight day early Tuesday, as sellers look to attack the $4,100 level.

Risk-off trades are back in vogue, courtesy of the latest reported attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a chip sell-off in the Asian markets, providing a floor to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) at the expense of the USD-denominated Gold.

An Axios reporter, citing a US official, stated late Monday that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.  The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) also reported a tanker reportedly hit by an unknown projectile on the port side in the Strait.

These alleged Iranian attacks in the Hormuz waters could reignite tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, putting the fragile ceasefire at risk and market sentiment on edge.

Asian equities remain under heavy bearish pressure as technology shares are being sold off, following Samsung’s slide after its earnings report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq futures decline suggests that Monday’s rebound on Wall Street could be temporary.

Attention now turns to the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday, with markets scaling down expectations of a near-term interest rate hike in the face of weak US ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls data.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its Services Purchasing Managers Index edged down to 54.0 last month from 54.5 in May. Last Thursday, the US NFP increased by 57,000 in June, well below expectations for a 110,000 rise. The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped to 61.5%, a five-year low.

Markets now project a 57% chance of a September Fed rate hike, down from roughly 70% before these data, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Therefore, the Fed Minutes will be closely scrutinized for fresh direction on new Chair Kevin Warsh's monetary policy path and Gold price.

In the meantime, Gold traders will focus on the geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the daily technical setup.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,130.36, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below all the major simple moving averages. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,147.33 is the first cap just above the market, while the 50-day SMA at $4,382.65 and the 200-day SMA at $4,489.96 reinforce a dense overhead supply zone, with the longer-term 100-day SMA up at $4,619.04 underscoring the broader downside tilt. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 44 stays below its midline, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and favoring further consolidation under these barriers.

Further, the Death Cross remains in play after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA on a weekly closing basis, keeping sellers hopeful.