黃金處於「成敗在此一舉」的關鍵水平，等待美伊和平談判的明朗化

• Gold sellers retain control for the third straight day on Friday after failing consistently above $4,800.
• The US Dollar holds recovery from six-week lows amid uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks and Oil price rebound.
• Gold teases falling wedge breakout amid bearish crossovers and neutral RSI; eyes on weekly close.

Gold is extending its range play below $4,800 early Friday, having failed to sustain above that level for the third consecutive day. Traders stay cautious, awaiting clarity on the next step in the US-Iran peace talks as the bullion heads for the fourth straight weekly gain.

With the US-Iran two-week ceasefire set to end on April 22, investors remain unnerved over the timing and the outcome of the next round of peace talks, leaving Gold price gyrating in a familiar range.

The upside attempts in Gold remain capped by the recent rebound in Oil prices as supply disruption concerns persist amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Surging Oil prices restoke inflationary concerns, calling for monetary policy tightening from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Additionally, a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD from near six-week troughs also acts as a headwind for the USD-denominated Gold.

However, the downside in the bright metal remains cushioned by a 10-day truce announced between Israel and Lebanon, with investors staying hopeful for a near-term resolution to the war in the Middle East. The renewed market optimism curbs the Greenback’s demand as a safe-haven asset, supporting Gold.

Heading into the weekend, Gold awaits a fresh directional impetus, remaining at the mercy of the developments in the Mideast war front.

Additionally, the end-of-the-week flows could play out and drive Gold price movements amid a lack of clarity on the likely US-Iran peace talks and the durability of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement.

Gold’s technical setup on the daily chart also appears interesting, leaving all eyes on technicals alongside geopolitics.

每日技術分析

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,789.50. The metal is caught between medium-term support and overhead supply, holding above the 21-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,646 and $4,715 while still capped by the 50-day SMA at $4,897 and a descending resistance trend line coming in near $4,792. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 suggests neutral momentum with a mild positive bias, hinting at consolidation rather than a directional breakout while price hovers just under the trend resistance.

Meanwhile, a 21-day SMA and 100-day SMA Bear Cross confirmed on April 13, as well as the March 25 Bear Cross, continue to temper Gold’s upside.

On the topside, immediate resistance is the descending trend line at about $4,792, and a daily close above it would expose the 50-day SMA at $4,897 as the next hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 100-day SMA near $4,715, with a broader rising trend-line area around the mid-$4,500s reinforcing underlying demand ahead of the 21-day SMA at approximately $4,646; only a sustained break below these layers would open the way toward the distant 200-day SMA support near $4,215.