{"id":23512,"date":"2026-01-12T05:08:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T05:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=23512"},"modified":"2026-01-12T05:08:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T05:08:18","slug":"daily-commentary-326","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/daily-commentary-326-20260112\/","title":{"rendered":"GOLD resumes record-setting run amid geopolitical and Fed concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul style=\"color:#f40307\" class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color\">\n<li><strong>Gold hits $4,600 for the first time on record early Monday, then retreats on profit-taking.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The US Dollar wilts on Trump\u2019s fresh attacks on the Fed\u2019s independence, rate cut bets.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gold confirms a bullish breakout on Friday above $4,490; record-setting rally set to extend. \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold is holding its profit-taking pullback from fresh record highs just above $4,600 on Monday, starting the week with a bang, courtesy of escalating geopolitical tensions and intensifying concerns over the US Federal Reserve\u2019s independence, which both induce a full-fledged risk-off environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors flock to safety in the traditional store of value, Gold, digesting the weekend\u2019s reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing a series of potential military options in Iran, following days of civil unrest and should the Iranian regime use lethal force against civilians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine also add to the risk-off market mood. The United Nations Security Council called for an emergency meeting on Monday after Russia used its new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile on Friday in a major strike on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, markets also remain wary over the Fed\u2019s independence after US federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell regarding the central bank&#8217;s renovation of its Washington headquarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These factors, combined with increased odds of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, continue to undermine the USD, while boosting the sentiment around the non-yielding Gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data on Friday showed that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 56,000 in November and against the expected gain of 60,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.4% in December, compared to the estimated 4.5% reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Attention now turns to the US CPI data for December, which will inject fresh volatility in the market. The data will be critical to gauging the chance of a March Fed rate cut, the odds of which currently sit at about 30%, according to the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, geopolitical developments and worries over the Fed\u2019s autonomy will continue to drive Gold price action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-vivid-red-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u0e01\u0e32\u0e23\u0e27\u0e34\u0e40\u0e04\u0e23\u0e32\u0e30\u0e2b\u0e4c\u0e17\u0e32\u0e07\u0e40\u0e17\u0e04\u0e19\u0e34\u0e04\u0e23\u0e32\u0e22\u0e27\u0e31\u0e19<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"364\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-1024x364.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-1024x364.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-768x273.png 768w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4-18x6.png 18w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-4.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades at $4,575.47. The 21- and 50-day SMAs advance and remain below price, underscoring firm bullish momentum. Shorter SMAs sit above the 100- and 200-day ones, with all slopes rising and buyers in control. The 21-day SMA at $4,403.01 offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints 69 (near overbought), in line with strong momentum; a pause could emerge if it pushes above 70. A dip would target the 50-day SMA at $4,243.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Longer-term SMAs reinforce the uptrend as the 100-day rises to $4,032.27 and the 200-day to $3,674.30, both well beneath price. The bullish alignment of shorter above longer averages supports an extension while pullbacks hold above the 21-day and 50-day SMAs. RSI at 69 stays just below overbought, keeping momentum strong but leaving room for brief consolidation if it cools toward 60. Initial support is layered at $4,403.01\u2013$4,243.70, while the broader bullish bias would persist above the rising 100-day SMA.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold is holding its profit-taking pullback from fresh record highs just above $4,600 on Monday, starting the week with a bang, courtesy of escalating geopolitical tensions and intensifying concerns over the US Federal Reserve\u2019s independence, which both induce a full-fledged risk-off environment. Investors flock to safety in the traditional store of value, Gold, digesting the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/daily-commentary-326-20260112\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;GOLD resumes record-setting run amid geopolitical and Fed concerns&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23512"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23514,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23512\/revisions\/23514"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}