{"id":20551,"date":"2024-06-05T05:59:27","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T05:59:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=20551"},"modified":"2024-06-05T05:59:27","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T05:59:27","slug":"daily-commentary-36","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/ja\/daily-commentary-36-20240605\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bcf\u65e5\u6c47\u8bc4\uff1a\u9ec4\u91d1\u5728\u5173\u952e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u52bf\u5934\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul class=\"has-text-color wp-block-list\" style=\"color:#f40307\">\n<li><strong>\u5468\u4e09\u65e9\u76d8\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u597d\u8f6c\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5927\u53cd\u0539 2340 \u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u3002<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"has-text-color wp-block-list\" style=\"color:#f40307\">\n<li><strong>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u885d\u6483\u6570\u636e\u75b2\u8f6f\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e00\u8d77\u4f01\u7a33\uff1b\u3002<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"has-text-color wp-block-list\" style=\"color:#f40307\">\n<li><strong>\u5468\u4e8c\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u8dcc\u783450\u65e5\u5747\u7ebf\uff0crsi\u8f6c\u4e3a\u770b\u8dcc\uff1b\u3002<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\"><br>    \u5468\u4e09\u65e9\u76d8\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u8bd5\u56fe\u6e29\u548c\u53cd\u0539\u81f3 2340 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u66fe\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86 2315 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e09\u5468\u4f4e\u70b9\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u9876\u7ea7 adp \u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u548cism \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u52a1pmi\u636e\u4ed8\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bfb\u627e\u7f8e\u8054\u508a\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u7684\u65b0\u7ebf\u7d22\uff0c\u5468\u4e09\u4e9a\u6d32\u4ea4\u6613\u6613\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4f01\u7a33\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5931\u53bb\u590d\u82cf\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d22\u65b0\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u52a1pmi \u6570\u8868\u636e\u73b0\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\">    \u4e2d\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u5168\u7403\u8d22\u65b0\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u52a1pmi\u4ece4\u6708\u4efd\u768452.5\u8dc3\u5347\u81f354.0\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u768452.6\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u9f13\u821e\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u9ec4\u91d1\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u5e83\u544a\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4e1a\u53d8\u5316\u6570\u636e\u548cism\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u52a1pmi\u516c\u5e03\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e70\u5bb6\u4ecd\u62b1\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u5c24\u662f\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4efd\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u91cd\u71c3\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf99\u6708\u8054\u7f8e\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\">     \u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u90e8\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5468\u4e8c\u5728\u5176jolts\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u57284\u6708\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5929\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8629.6\u4e07\u4e2a\uff0c\u81f3805.9\u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a2021\u5e742\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\">    CME \u7684 FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8 9 \u6708\u4efd\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ea6\u4e3a 561T4T\uff0c\u800c\u5468\u4e00\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 521T4T\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5468\u4e09\u665a\u4e9b\u5019\u7f8e\u56fd ADP \u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u548c ISM \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u6570\u636e\u4ee4\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u518d\u5ea6\u5ea6\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u632f\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\"><strong>\u9ec4\u91d1\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"402\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-1024x402.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20552\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-1024x402.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-768x302.png 768w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-1536x603.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18.png 1592w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\">    \u4ece\u65e5\u7ebf\u56fe\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5468\u4e8c\u6536\u76d8\u8dcc\u7834\u5173\u952e\u768450\u65e5\u7b80\u5355\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\uff08\u5f53\u65f6\u4e3a2335\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u7a81\u7834\u533a\u95f4\u300214\u65e5\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570\u5df2\u56de\u523050\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8d1f\u503c\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e0b\u884c\u7a81\u7834\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u5356\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u6301\u7eed\u8dcc\u7834\u4e09\u5468\u4f4e\u70b92315\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5c06\u4e0b\u884c\u8d8b\u52bf\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f32300\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u518d\u5f80\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8dcc\u81f35\u67083\u65e5\u7684\u4f4e\u70b92277\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\" style=\"line-height:2\">   \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u53cd\u0539\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u63a5\u53d750\u65e5\u7dbd\u64e7\u4f4d\u8f6c\u4f4d\u4e3a\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a2337\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6297\u575a\u633a\u768421\u65e5\u7dbd\uff082358\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e70\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u54115\u670824\u65e5\u7684\u9ad8\u70b92364\u7f8e\u5143\u5c55\u793a\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b64\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u81f3\u4e0a\u5347\u6954\u5f62\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\u8f6c\u4f4d\u963b\u529b\u4f4d2400\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5468\u4e09\u65e9\u76d8\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u8bd5\u56fe\u6e29\u548c\u53cd\u5f39\u81f3 2340 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4e00\u5929\u66fe\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86 2315 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4e09\u5468\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u9876\u7ea7 ADP \u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u548c ISM \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bfb\u627e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u524d\u666f\u7684\u65b0\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002\u5468\u4e09\u4e9a\u6d32\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4f01\u7a33\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5931\u53bb\u590d\u82cf\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d22\u65b0\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u6570\u636e\u8868\u73b0\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u6807\u666e\u5168\u7403\u8d22\u65b0\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u4ece 4 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 52.5 \u8dc3\u5347\u81f3 54.0\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684 52.6\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u9f13\u821e\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u548c\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u9ec4\u91d1\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728 ADP \u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4e1a\u53d8\u5316\u6570\u636e\u548c ISM \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u516c\u5e03\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e70\u5bb6\u4ecd\u62b1\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4efd\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u91cd\u71c3\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9 9 \u6708\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002 \u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u90e8\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u5468\u4e8c\u5728\u5176 JOLTS \u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u5728 4 \u6708\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5929\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86 29.6\u4e07\u4e2a\uff0c\u81f3 805.9\u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a 2021 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002ISM \u5468\u4e00\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a PMI \u6307\u6570\u4ece 4 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 49.2 \u964d\u81f3 5 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 48.7\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u7684 49.6\u30025 \u6708\u4efd ISM \u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u652f\u4ed8\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u964d\u81f3 57.0\uff0c\u800c\u524d\u503c\u4e3a 60.9\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u4e3a 60.0\u3002 CME\u7684 FedWatch \u5de5\u5177\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8 9 \u6708\u4efd\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9 \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ea6\u4e3a 56%\uff0c\u800c\u5468\u4e00\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 52%\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5468\u4e09\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u7f8e\u56fd ADP \u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u548c ISM \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u6570\u636e\u4ee4\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u671b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u518d\u5ea6\u9e3d\u6d3e\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e76\u91cd\u632f\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u60c5\u7eea\u3002 \u9ec4\u91d1\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790 \u4ece\u65e5\u7ebf\u56fe\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5468\u4e8c\u6536\u76d8\u8dcc\u7834\u5173\u952e\u7684 50 \u65e5\u7b80\u5355\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebfSMA\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\uff08\u5f53\u65f6\u4e3a 2335 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u7a81\u7834\u533a\u95f4\u300214 \u65e5\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5f31\u6307\u6570RSI\u5df2\u56de\u5230 50 \u6c34\u5e73\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u8d1f\u503c\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e0b\u884c\u7a81\u7834\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u9ec4\u91d1\u5356\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u6301\u7eed\u8dcc\u7834\u4e09\u5468\u4f4e\u70b9 2315 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5c06\u4e0b\u884c\u8d8b\u52bf\u5ef6\u7eed\u81f3 2300 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u518d\u5f80\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8dcc\u81f3 5 \u6708 3 \u65e5\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9 2,277 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u53cd\u5f39\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u63a5\u53d7 50 \u65e5 SMA \u652f\u6491\u4f4d\u8f6c\u4e3a\u963b\u529b\u4f4d\uff08\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a 2337 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6297\u575a\u633a\u7684 21 \u65e5 SMA\uff082358 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e70\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5411 5 \u6708 24 \u65e5\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9 2364 \u7f8e\u5143\u5c55\u793a\u5b9e\u529b\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b64\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u81f3\u4e0a\u5347\u6954\u5f62\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\u8f6c\u4e3a\u963b\u529b\u4f4d &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.meisheng.asia\/ja\/daily-commentary-36-20240605\/\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;\u6bcf\u65e5\u6c47\u8bc4\uff1a\u9ec4\u91d1\u5728\u5173\u952e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u524d\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u52bf\u5934\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u5417\uff1f&#8221; 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