XAU/USD looks vulnerable whilst below $4,5820-$4,630 supply zone

• Gold holds the pullback from two-week highs of $4,595 as buyers turn cautious early Monday.
• The US Dollar finds fresh haven demand amid US-Iran ceasefire limbo, Oil price rebound.
• Technically, Gold struggles to take out the key resistance zone as momentum remains bearish.

Gold is holding the previous pullback from two-week highs of $4,595 early Monday, as buyers struggle to find a fresh impetus amid looming uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire extension deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

Following last week’s reports that both sides were closing in on a 60-day truce, scepticism prevails in Asia this Monday as the new week kicks off.

However, a lack of clarity remains on the ceasefire, with markets still awaiting US President Donald Trump to review the proposal and respond to Iran.

Axios reported early Monday that Trump wanted to reinforce multiple points of the deal that he felt were important, such as what to do with Iran’s nuclear material, adding that Trump was informed it could take three days for Iran to respond.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on Sunday that talks and message exchanges with the US were ongoing. Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei said that the country has made no nuclear commitments to Washington.

These remarks clearly highlight that sticking points continue to remain between the US and Iran, keeping the ceasefire extension in limbo while reviving the US Dollar (USD) safe-haven appeal. This, in turn, checks the Gold price upside.

At the same time, Oil prices are staging an impressive bounce, with WTI recovering from six-week troughs. The ongoing strikes between Israel and Lebanon fuel the latest rebound in the black gold.

Renewed Oil price uptick reignites inflation concerns and bolsters hawkish expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

Increased hawkish Fed bets further support the USD, leaving Gold buyers struggling, despite last week’s late rebound.

In the week ahead, risks appear to the downside for the bright metal unless there is a decisive breakthrough in the US-Iran peace deal. Additionally, the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due on Friday could also help alter Fed rate expectations and determine the Gold price direction in the coming weeks.

The immediate focus now remains on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the day for fresh trading incentives, while US-Iran headlines will continue to drive market sentiment and Gold volatility.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,522.25. The metal remains under pressure in the near term as price holds below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,582.65 and the 50-day SMA at $4,628.82, while still trading above the more distant 200-day SMA at $4,411.29. This configuration suggests a corrective bearish bias within a broader uptrend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 hinting at subdued but not extreme downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 21-day SMA near $4,582.65, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,628.82 and then the 100-day SMA, which strengthens a higher resistance band around $4,802.34. On the downside, immediate focus is on the nearby pivot zone around the current price, ahead of firmer support at the 200-day SMA near $4,411.29, with the prior downward trend-line break area around $4,282.51 emerging as a deeper structural floor if selling accelerates.