GOLD could rebound toward $4,650 if this support holds

• Gold attempts a tepid recovery above $4,500 after extending the last week’s downtrend to seven-week lows near $4,480.
• The US Dollar keeps rising on a likely US-Iran re-escalation, inflation fears-led hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold needs to defend the falling wedge resistance-turned-support at $4,470 to sustain the rebound.

Gold is trading back above $4,500 in Asia on Monday, attempting a recovery from seven-week lows near $4,480 amid renewed escalation in the conflict between the United States (US) and Iran.

Gold kicks off a new week on a bearish note, as markets remain highly unnerved, following the geopolitical re-escalation over the week after the much-touted meeting between US President and his Chinese counterpart, yielded no material results in the Iran war.

Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency stated that the US had failed to make any concrete concessions in its response to Tehran’s latest proposals to end the conflict.These renewed geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the Oil price rally, accentuating inflation fears and keeping bets alive for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this year.

“Markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate hike before year-end, with a 50% chance of a move by December,” Reuters reported, citing the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Hawkish Fed expectations keep the US Dollar’s (USD) attractiveness, as the world’s reserve currency, weighing on non-yielding assets such as Gold.

All eyes remain on any signs of further re-escalation in the Iran war, with the situation in Cuba will also be monitored; both are likely to render positive for the Greenback.

Hence, it remains to be seen if the bright metal sustains the latest bounce from over one-month lows, as traders continue assessing the latest measures imposed by India to curb bullion imports, in a bid to support the rapidly declining Indian Rupee (INR).

Daily technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,532.85, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath a stack of declining moving averages. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4,655 and the 50-day SMA near $4,716 sit well above spot and suggest rallies remain corrective within a broader pullback, while the 100-day SMA around $4,790 reinforces a heavier medium-term structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 39, indicating subdued momentum that aligns with persistent downside pressure rather than an imminent bullish reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 21-day SMA around $4,655, followed by the 50-day SMA at approximately $4,716 and then the 100-day SMA near $4,790, where sellers could defend the broader downtrend. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the former falling wedge resistance now support area around $4,468, ahead of stronger structural backing from the 200-day SMA at about $4,353; a daily close below the trend-line region would likely expose the longer-term average and deepen the corrective phase.